When Stephen Curry, point guard of the Golden State Warriors stepped onto the hardwood at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, the odds already had him favored by two points. Across the court, LeBron James, the 40‑year‑old forward for the Los Angeles Lakers was listed as a non‑starter after a sciatica flare‑up forced the team physician, Dr. Gary Vitti, to sit him out. The clash, officially titled Warriors vs Lakers season openerCrypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA, kicked off the 2025‑26 NBA schedule and was broadcast nationally on NBC and streamed on Peacock.
Why the matchup matters
Both clubs entered the season as Western Conference heavyweights, projected to finish inside the top six. FiveThirtyEight’s model gave the Warriors a 68% playoff probability and the Lakers 62% as of Oct. 20. The odds line – Warriors –2 (or –2.5) and a total of roughly 224 points – reflects bettors’ belief this will be a high‑octane affair, especially with Luka Dončić, 26, guard of the Los Angeles Lakers making his first season‑opener after a splashy trade in 2024.
Injury snapshot
Beyond James, the Lakers roster is missing Alex Toohey (out) and have Max Kleber listed as questionable. Their new centerpiece, Deandre Ayton, 27, center, is cleared to start, while Marcus Smart was added to guard the floor.
The Warriors will be shorthanded too. Both Moses Moody and De’Anthony Melton are out, but the core trio – Curry, Jimmy Butler, 35, small forward, and Draymond Green, 35, power forward – remains intact. Al Horford and Seth Curry provide veteran depth.
Betting angles and expert takes
- Spread: Warriors –2 (Covers) or –2.5 (Sports Illustrated) – the line suggests a slight edge for the Bay Area squad.
- Moneyline: Warriors –130, Lakers +110 – a classic favorite underdog split.
- Over/Under: 224.5 (Covers) or 223.5 (SI) – expect a fast‑paced game with both teams averaging above 112 points per night last season.
- Prop: Austin Reaves OVER 22.5 points (‑111) – Reaves has thrived in James‑absent games, posting 27.9 ppg in those nine outings.
Sports Illustrated’s betting analyst John Fanta warned that “Reaves should see a heavy workload; without James, the Lakers will lean on him and Dončić to generate offense.” Meanwhile, Pickswise senior analyst Jack Krysinski highlighted the Warriors’ 9‑of‑13 away‑game success last season, dubbing them a “road warrior” team that could thrive in Los Angeles.
Coaches’ perspectives
Steve Kerr, 59, head coach of the Warriors emphasized that the 23‑7 record with Butler in the lineup was no fluke. “We proved we can win with Butler playing his hybrid role,” Kerr said in a pre‑game press conference on Oct. 20.
Opposite him, JJ Redick, 40, head coach of the Lakers admitted the preseason was a learning curve. “We went 1‑4, but those experiments gave us a feel for how Dončić and Ayton fit together,” Redick told reporters.
What the numbers say
Historical data from Covers.com shows the Warriors were 14‑13 ATS after the All‑Star break in 2024‑25, while the Lakers have a 1‑6 season‑opener record in James’s tenure. The Warriors, however, finished the prior year 22‑5 when Curry and Butler shared the floor, suggesting chemistry could swing the opening night.
Looking ahead
The matchup is the first of four scheduled meetings between the franchises this season – Dec. 17 in L.A., Jan. 23 in San Francisco, and March 28 back in L.A. – each game will be a stepping stone toward playoff seeding. If the Warriors clinch the opener, they’ll take an early grip on the West’s top‑seed race; a Lakers win, even without James, could signal a rapid adjustment to their new core.
Key facts
- Date & time: Oct. 21, 2025, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: NBC (TV) & Peacock (stream)
- Spread: Warriors –2 (Covers) / –2.5 (SI)
- Total points: 224.5 (Covers) / 223.5 (SI)
Frequently Asked Questions
How will LeBron James’s absence affect the Lakers’ game plan?
Without James, Los Angeles will rely heavily on Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić to create scoring opportunities. Coach Redick has hinted at a faster, perimeter‑oriented offense, using Ayton’s interior presence to free up the guards for drives and three‑point shots.
What are the most telling betting trends for this game?
Covers data shows the Warriors have covered the spread in 58% of games after the All‑Star break, while the Lakers are 1‑6 in season‑openers. The over/under lines suggest bettors anticipate a 112‑point average per team, aligning with both squads’ offensive outputs from last season.
Who is the likely MVP of the season opener?
If Curry stays hot, he’s the front‑runner, especially with Butler feeding him the ball. However, Dončić’s first‑game performance could reshape expectations for the Lakers, making him a strong contender for early‑season MVP chatter.
What does the Warriors’ road‑game record suggest about their chances in Los Angeles?
Golden State won nine of thirteen away contests last season, a trend that points to resilience on the road. Coupled with a 22‑5 win rate when Curry and Butler play together, the odds favor a Warriors victory on the West Coast.
When is the next Warriors‑Lakers game and why does it matter?
The next showdown is scheduled for Dec. 17, 2025, at Crypto.com Arena. By then the teams will have a clearer picture of their health and chemistry, turning the rematch into a potential playoff‑positioning showdown.
